Saturday 13 July 2024

Tracker Fund of Hong Kong 2800.HK

With the S&P500 breaching all time highs, I was hesitatant to buy more VUSD.L ETF, and instead looking at other more attractive low hanging fruits. Naturally after the largest USA economy, we can look at the next No. 2, which is China. Being a Chinese and knowing some history of China and the Chinese language, I guess there's some slight advantage in trying to understand China vs the West. Also in my previous work, Singapore has been a key player in trying to bridge/work between the USA and China. China market is a bit complicated/restricted and still in infancy stage compared to S&P500, so naturally a more understandable and tradeable would instead be the Hong Kong market.


The Tracker Fund 2800.HK is one of the most traded stock in the Hong Kong market, with daily volumes around 300M with value of HK$5.7B (S$1B). This is equivalent to the daily value of the entire Singapore market! Besides it is also composed from various China technology stocks like Alibaba/Tencent/Meituan/JD/Xiaomi/BYD and financials like AIA/HSBC/BOC/CCB/ICBC.

Source: HK market on 12 July 2024


Source: TraHK Full Holdings Monthly



I actually had a Buy queue at HK$18 on 10 July, but unfortunately it closed at HK$18.02 instead. The next two days saw a strong 4% rise, possibly from China govt interventions or USA inflation numbers. With the 3rd China Plenum in mid July, there could be more policies upcoming to support the economy and battered property sector. 



2800.HK has dropped almost 50% since Jan 2018, and might be forming a double bottom pattern to stage a price reversal recovery. Would it form a higher-low and eventually form a higher-high for a trend reversal? Only time will tell  😅

Press on Financial Warrior, YOU Mighty Man of Valour!

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Disclaimer: This blog is provided for information purposes and should not be used as an enticement to invest in any financial products

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Friday 12 July 2024

OCBC ~$300K ... sell abit at $15.3

 I have been slowly accumulating OCBC for a couple of years to reach a sizeable amount of ~$300K investment. For local Singaporeans, OCBC needs no further introduction, as one of the 3 largest banks in Singapore.



Record financial numbers seems to be the norm these days, from tailwinds of high interest rates and strong economy. Record Net profit of $2B, low NPL of 1% and high CET1 of 16.2%, which are all great numbers. Upcoming Q2 results on 2 Aug, should show continued strength and a nice 42c dividend, making a good 5.5% yield (12m TTM), even at current all time high price of $15.3

Source: OCBC business update

As price continues to scales new all time highs, there's some selling seen, which is normal, as some traders/investors take some profit. From the daily chart, we can see price action of slight pull back as prices reach new highs. As the old saying goes, there's never a wrong time to take some profit off the table, and lock-in some realised gains. Markets are volatile and uncertainties are unforseeable. Paper money is still not your money, until it ends up in your bank account 😂



In the weekly chart, the uptrend is still intact with stochastics at overbought region. Prices are breaking convincingly away from consolidation price range of $12-14



Would prices continue to move higher? I hope so and it seems likely too  😎

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Thursday 11 July 2024

~$100K investment ... nimbling Capland Ascott Trust CLAS

I have held Ascott since the IPO days of Ascendas Hospitality Trust (which is quite a number of years 😂). While my personal preferance is in industrial instead of hospitality reits, due to their higher yield in general and a more familiar sector, I have tried to diversify somewhat to gain some other reits exposure.


Then came the infamous Covid pandemic and global travel was devastated. 3+ years on and the hospitality sector is still on this painful recovery. Of course the rapid rise of USA interest rates was a double whammy to highly leverage reits/trusts.

Still some green shoots of hope are starting to grow in its financials, with gross revenue, profit and DPS steadily increasing into a respectable 6.64% dividend yield for FY2023. From its latest 1Q 2024 business update, the good news seems to be continuing with possibly good 2Q results releasing on 26 July, together with 3.1c dividends estimated, forming 7% dividend yield 12months TTM.

Source: Ascott annual report & business update



Fed chair Jerome Powell has been speaking to Congress these two days, and is hinting on lowering interest rates soon. From CME data, there's 68% probability of a Fed cut of 25bps in Sep. Personally, I think due to USA elections in Nov, the Fed will instead choose to act independent and do nothing until after elections.

Source: CME Group

Today Reits staged a strong 4% rebound with MIT and MLT leading the way. Similarly CLAS ended up with 1.7% gain. Will it eventually form a double/triple bottom chart pattern? Only time will tell 😅

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Monday 1 July 2024

$71,340 1H2024 income ... $142,697 FY2024 estimate

Was looking to divest abit of DBS last Friday, but was unsuccessful, to prop up my 1H2024 numbers. Well, there's always 2H to look forward to 😂 The major bulk of my income came from dividends of banks, reits, bonds etc. Hopefully should still be comfortable for my family of 4 😅


Markets have been mainly sideways for the past 6 months, as many are waiting for USA interest rates to fall to further stimulate the share prices. With upcoming USA elections in Nov, I doubt the Fed would make further changes to interest rates, to show their supposedly independence from politics. There can't really be full independence as the Fed chair is appointed by the USA President right?! 


For Singapore, we don't even try to hide this dependence between Fiscal vs Monetary authorities. Both should work hand-in-hand for the good of the country right?! The world's largest economy is at times disgusting to watch, as many put party over country, false loyalty over constitution *faint* 😓Still be it whoever wins, it should have little impact over the next 10 years on the S&P500 uptrend. Money truly drives the USA economy, and bad politics can be good for business unfortunately ....


In the meantime, I would add to my VUSD.L (S&P500 ETF) if there's some price correction. Looking also to the longer term for the rise of China. Will most probably start picking up some 2800.HK (Hang Seng ETF)

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