Single Day ~$50K unrealized profits w Banks

Both UOB and OCBC announced good Q3 results today, plus DBS yesterday. While many would agree that these are all great results, still an eye-popping single day increase of around 9% for UOB and 2% each for OCBC and DBS has been quite pleasantly surprising! I couldn't resist to sell some OCBC to take some profit, with upcoming weekend & possible China govt positive announcements, which might pull some funds back into undervalued HK markets

The USA election win for Trump has been also unexpected, and I can't help but wonder why would Americans elect such an immoral person as president. Complicated & different approaches to policies like Israel/Hamas war, Abortion, Tariffs, Tax & Regulations and LGBTQ can be debatable on what should be the correct/better choices, but raping  woman is just immorally WRONG! Apathetic & misinformed voters could prove to be a slow spiral downfall of a global superpower

I was actually expecting a close & hung election, with Harris winning & Trump disputing with recounts. Unfortunately, it was a big victory for the Republicans with wins in Senate & possibly the House. There goes the S&P500 pullback to purchase more, and once again we are seeing all-time high prices. Are u also waiting for an opportune time to buy more S&P500 for long-term investments? Let me know in the comments below, thanks 😁

It's going to be a scary & unpredictable outlook for the future 4 years. Who knows that Trump might decide after 4 years to continue on for more. He is the "King" now, controlling Executive, Legislature and the Courts. Hoping for the best & preparing for the worst  😅

Press on Financial Warrior, YOU Mighty Man of Valour!

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Disclaimer: This blog is provided for information purposes and should not be used as an enticement to invest in any financial products

Tracker Fund of Hong Kong 2800.HK

With the S&P500 breaching all time highs, I was hesitatant to buy more VUSD.L ETF, and instead looking at other more attractive low hanging fruits. Naturally after the largest USA economy, we can look at the next No. 2, which is China. Being a Chinese and knowing some history of China and the Chinese language, I guess there's some slight advantage in trying to understand China vs the West. Also in my previous work, Singapore has been a key player in trying to bridge/work between the USA and China. China market is a bit complicated/restricted and still in infancy stage compared to S&P500, so naturally a more understandable and tradeable would instead be the Hong Kong market.

The Tracker Fund 2800.HK is one of the most traded stock in the Hong Kong market, with daily volumes around 300M with value of HK$5.7B (S$1B). This is equivalent to the daily value of the entire Singapore market! Besides it is also composed from various China technology stocks like Alibaba/Tencent/Meituan/JD/Xiaomi/BYD and financials like AIA/HSBC/BOC/CCB/ICBC.

Source: HK market on 12 July 2024

Source: TraHK Full Holdings Monthly

I actually had a Buy queue at HK$18 on 10 July, but unfortunately it closed at HK$18.02 instead. The next two days saw a strong 4% rise, possibly from China govt interventions or USA inflation numbers. With the 3rd China Plenum in mid July, there could be more policies upcoming to support the economy and battered property sector. 

2800.HK has dropped almost 50% since Jan 2018, and might be forming a double bottom pattern to stage a price reversal recovery. Would it form a higher-low and eventually form a higher-high for a trend reversal? Only time will tell  😅

Press on Financial Warrior, YOU Mighty Man of Valour!

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Disclaimer: This blog is provided for information purposes and should not be used as an enticement to invest in any financial products

$71,340 1H2024 income ... $142,697 FY2024 estimate

Was looking to divest abit of DBS last Friday, but was unsuccessful, to prop up my 1H2024 numbers. Well, there's always 2H to look forward to 😂 The major bulk of my income came from dividends of banks, reits, bonds etc. Hopefully should still be comfortable for my family of 4 😅

Markets have been mainly sideways for the past 6 months, as many are waiting for USA interest rates to fall to further stimulate the share prices. With upcoming USA elections in Nov, I doubt the Fed would make further changes to interest rates, to show their supposedly independence from politics. There can't really be full independence as the Fed chair is appointed by the USA President right?! 

For Singapore, we don't even try to hide this dependence between Fiscal vs Monetary authorities. Both should work hand-in-hand for the good of the country right?! The world's largest economy is at times disgusting to watch, as many put party over country, false loyalty over constitution *faint* 😓Still be it whoever wins, it should have little impact over the next 10 years on the S&P500 uptrend. Money truly drives the USA economy, and bad politics can be good for business unfortunately ....

In the meantime, I would add to my VUSD.L (S&P500 ETF) if there's some price correction. Looking also to the longer term for the rise of China. Will most probably start picking up some 2800.HK (Hang Seng ETF)

Press on, you Mighty Man of Valour!

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Q1 $17,808 ... Q2 $23,535 ... 2024 $114,583

2023 Cashflow $142,519 w XIRR 9.0%

As stocks investing is filled with multiple Buys and Sells, constituting lots of Cashflows, I started computing the cash Inflows and Outflows that is similar to a normal business. It is common to say that Cash is akin to Blood and critical to any business operations. Cashflow is kind of related but not the same as Profit. In financial accounting, you can ascribe a profit and yet have a portfolio negative cashflow. It is also easier to financial engineer a profit than a positive cashflow 😅

Received a number of requests from readers of my blog post $983k profits in 20 years (2005-2024) on questions about my IRR... Drum roll please! 😂

As you can clearly see from above, my XIRR values are really not that great. If we do a multi year XIRR, the value would just be in single digits, underperforming the S&P500 markets of around 10% average per year. Why not just save all the trouble and put everything into the S&P500 ETF instead?! I guess there are a number of reasons namely:

1) Yes, yes I am finally starting to invest in S&P500 ETF (VUSD.L and IVV.US), plus they are really at all-time high levels currently

2) Investing in S&P500 index is really boring with nothing much to do 😆

3) Beware of getting caught in a 13-years long sideways USA market. If u had bought at the high of 2000, it would take beyond 2013 to register a profit

I am sure many of us share the same sentiment that Mr. Market knows when we buy (prices drop!) and when we sell (prices rise! Grrr...) It will really take a solid mind and emotions to hold for 13-years just to breakeven. Shares investing is simple but not easy! Hope this simple sharing benefits u  😎

Press on, you Mighty Man of Valour!

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USA vs Singapore Stock Market

Over the past few months, I have been rebalancing & streamlining my portfolio to make it easier to manage for the future. I have fully divested Sembcorp Industries and Yangzijiang, and will be looking to sell away my small holding of ST Engineering in the near future. 

Diversification is a risk management strategy to create different investment assets within a portfolio. With every strategy comes its pros and cons. While attempting to reduce risk through different baskets of equities, more time would also be needed to analyze and manage the risks within each investment. As I am looking to increase my holdings in S&P500 ETFs (IVV.US and VUSD.L) for the longer term, it only makes sense to reduce my time in other non-critical Singapore stocks.

I have in the past avoided investing in USA stock market (besides Employee Stock Purchase Plans) due to the time difference, taxes and more importantly in the event of sudden death. It would be confusing for my spouse or immediate family to liquidate the USA holdings coupled with Singapore estate assets during times of grieve. Since I have slightly more time now and with USA still being the most investible market in the next few decades, it makes sense to dabble once again with tiny steps into passive ETFs.

The S&P500 index has really had an explosive run since 1950s. With the exception of 8-years period from 2000 to 2008 (Dotcom and Global Financial Crisis). With the 2020 Covid crash behind us, and USA markets recovering to push towards new all time highs, will it go even higher or revert back to a double top 8-years period repeat? Let me know your thoughts in the Comments section below  😎

In the short term chart, price support would be in 4370 levels, while price resistance would be in 4580 levels. Would hope to pick up some if prices retrace to around 4370, as USA economy seems to be heading for a soft landing. Inflation is coming down slowly but surely, and labour market is reasonably strong. If the economy weakens in 2024, the Fed would have more options to reduce interest rates and print more money, which bodes well for the USA stock market. While long term it might not be the best choice for the country, but it does turbo boost the market prices from the 2009 GFC recovery. Cheap money always finds the place where it is treated best, and good investors would have little choice but to ride the bull run so as to protect their personal wealth. Buying the Top500 companies would be buying into the near future of USA, and my personal conviction is that USA would remain the strongest and most investible market in the next decade.

Are you also looking to buy into the S&P500? Let me know too 😅

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Compare S&P500 BlackRock ETF IVV vs CSPX

 

Both IVV and CSPX are passive S&P500 ETFs from BlackRock that seeks to track the performance of an index of 500 large cap USA companies. IVV is listed in the NYSE (USA), while CSPX is listed in LSE (UK). Both are in USD and have shown similarities in terms of portfolio performance and pricing.

Only slight differences are seen in terms of Net Assets, Dividends and Expense Ratio. 

IVV is more established (since 2000) with $308B net assets, quarterly distribution of dividends and a lower expense ratio of 0.03%

CSPX however is smaller, accumulating dividends and a slightly higher expense ratio of 0.07%

Personal Preferance: As a re-foray into USA markets after many years, I guess it pays to be more cautious. Would choose IVV instead, as it is more established/liquidity, pays quarterly dividend and offers a lower expense ratio (personally dislike paying fund managers 😂). The slight drawback would be in the USA domicile, which would require 30% tax vs 15% tax for Ireland. Guess my intial positions would be small, so there should not be much differences in dividend payouts.

S&P500 ETF - Onward to USA Market!

Waiting for a good opportuntiy to enter into USA markets. Hopefully it would be profitable in the long run, as Singapore markets is small and kind of directionless.

As always, would welcome any comments or suggestions  😎

S&P500 ETF - Onward to USA Market!

 

The legendary investor Warren Buffet has long recommended that the average person buy a low cost S&P500 index fund, as it will be difficult to beat the market in long run. Being an average Joe in the market and having more time currently to learn, I decided to take a closer look at the S&P500 passive ETFs. 

USA remains the largest economy in the world, and the Top500 companies make up the S&P500 index. I have travelled many times to different parts of USA and have always loved this country, which is full of natural resources, freedom & innovation. Though in recent years, challenges (eg. dysfunctional politics and gun violence) have arised, I still believe that USA will be the market leader for many more years to come.

Naturally while looking at the S&P500 ETF, one will first see the oldest (since 1993) and most liquid SPY. 

The slight con of SPY is its relatively higher Expense Ratio at 0.09% as compared to 0.03% in BlackRock IVV, Vanguard VOO and also State Street's cousin SPLG

Since I am thinking of using my current Standard Chartered trading platform, I am considering IVV which is priced around $414. I also like this price as it's almost 10 times less than the current 4140 S&P500 index. Easy to calculate mah ... 😂

As I am new to investing in S&P500 index, please let me know if u have any better passive Index Funds suggestions. Thanks :)